March 18, 2016 - The graph above shows that Trump seems well on his way to winning a plurality of the votes but this is not enough to win the nomination. He needs 1,237 to win it outright and prevent a brokered convention.
As of 3/16/16, he has 673 delegates and his opponents total delegates are 738 for a total of 1411 committed delegates. This leaves 1061 remaining delegates to be determined. Trump needs 564 or 53 percent to get to the 1,237 needed to win because he has never gotten a win of over 50 percent.
It would seem therefore that Trump has little chance of an outright win but there is a catch. 597 of these delegates are winner take all primaries by either statewide or Congressional districts. This combined with his current delegates would put him over the 1,237 delegates needed to win.
Of Course he is unlikely to take all of the winner take all states but this combined with the other plurality delegates available certainly gives him an excellent chance of winning enough delegates for an outright win.